A Profound Mass Illusion

 A few years ago, vast numbers of people in many parts of the world believed in unison that real estate prices could only go up, despite this belief defying real estate market history. Inevitably after running up prices, those prices crashed, and we are still feeling the severe effects today.

Now vast numbers of people in many parts of the world believe interest rates will remain near zero in stronger economies and they are basing their investments and their savings plans accordingly.

In the U.S. that belief of near zero interest rates and gargantuan printing of currency is so strong, that the government is basing the rapid growth of its national debt upon it. It can continue to borrow and spend huge sums it doesn't have because the cost of borrowed money is so cheap.

This could become a huge mistake, for when interest rates do rise, as history tells us they will, the government's debt could be ensnared in a debt payment spiral, forcing either higher taxes and/or the printing of even more currency to pay for all of its prior borrowings, let alone those that might be necessary going forward.

The option of higher taxes potentially could crush the economy and the option of even higher currency printing could set off spiraling inflation.

For now, U.S. politicians by their actions don't see any risk of interest rates spiking upward and operate accordingly. But do take heart dear reader. Politicians respond to crisis' and they will respond when the immense problems of which they are sowing the seeds do manifest themselves as a financial crisis.

In the meantime, if possible, please don't over extend yourself in the current economic climate.

Dick